The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted key oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning atomic explosion on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the prospective to throw federal governments' long-lasting preparation into chaos.

Whatever the reality, increasing long term worldwide demands appear certain to outstrip production in the next decade, particularly provided the high and increasing expenses of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing rates drive this technology to the leading edge, one of the wealthiest possible production locations has actually been completely overlooked by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to become a major gamer in the production of biofuels if enough foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured mostly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom since of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and fairly scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually largely hindered their ability to money in on increasing worldwide energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, however their increased need to create winter electrical energy has led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has ended up being a significant producer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, given the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower extent Astana for those sturdy investors going to bet on the future, specifically as a plant indigenous to the region has currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business already investigating how to produce it in commercial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight utilizing camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian provider to experiment with flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's operational efficiency capability and potential business viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil material low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another perk of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially fine animals feed candidate that is just now gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a new crop on the scene: historical proof indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, showed a large range of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been figured out to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can develop problems in germination to attain an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential might allow Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the nation's efforts at agrarian reform considering that accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile industry. The process was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had ended up being self-dependent in cotton; five decades later it had actually become a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it might to diversify, in the absence of options Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up approximately 60 percent of the nation's difficult currency earnings.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective irrigation canals, leading to the remarkable shrinkage of the rivers' last destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with a location of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst eco-friendly disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University recently described camelina's organization model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would gather $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the irrigation facilities and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign investment. U.S. financiers have the money and access to the knowledge of America's land grant universities. What is certain is that biofuel's market share will grow with time; less specific is who will reap the advantages of establishing it as a viable concern in Central Asia.

If the current past is anything to pass it is unlikely to be American and European financiers, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments suggest Asian interest, American investors have the scholastic know-how, if they are willing to follow the Silk Road into establishing a new market. Certainly anything that lessens water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the great deal of their agrarian population will get most mindful consideration from Central Asia's governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not just more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed quicker.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.